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After New Hampshire, What Do We Know Now?

2/11/2016

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Well here we are, two days after the New Hampshire Primary with confusion and concern in both political parties. On the Republican side, it is hoping for more dropouts, wondering if one establishment candidate can emerge and soon, and if stopping Trump is realistic. On the Democratic side, Bernie has money and for now momentum with Hillary reassessing some strategies and accepting that this is not going to be over soon.

What a difference a day can make in politics. Coming out of Iowa, Rubio by doing much better than expected, roared into New Hampshire with the wind at his back. He had the establishment feeling much better and with the hope that he could take out the other establishment lane candidates and soon. The press was questioning Trump’s stainability, assuming Cruz would not do that well, questioning how Kasich had any plan beyond, and watching poor Bush dragging his mother all over the state to tell the voters how nice Jeb was. At least that was the case until Saturday night. In that three hour span, Trump was left alone and headed to victory, Cruz got caught in a lie with Carson and CNN, all the Governors were strong, and poor Rubio kept hitting the repeat button allowing Christie to totally put a halt to the rise of Marco. The three Governors clearly showed that they were the only ones who could actually answer the questions. What this all means is that the sooner the establishment lane narrows, the more likely that Trump can be stopped.

On the Democratic side, for the moment, it is likewise muddled. For now, the two candidates will obviously keep going and both have the strength it appears to go all the way to Philadelphia. What is clearer here is that this is a fight between one candidate with solid experience and skills (note Christie’s attack on Rubio was tied to the fact he would fail against Hillary) and one creating new excitement with promise of a revolution. In this dangerous world in which we live, comparing the two on foreign policy and abilities as Commander in Chief (aside from the one key vote argument being used by Bernie), the only thing keeping him from taking serious damage on this issue is that the Hillary campaign wants his supporters in the end, the Republicans want to run against him, and the press, as usual, want a horse race. Which leaves very few people out there to talk about the realities of a general election campaign and the down-ballot implications in states like Kansas.
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    John W. Carlin​—​61st Speaker of the Kansas House, 40th Governor of Kansas, 8th Archivist of the United States, and student of leadership

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