John W. Carlin and Civic Leadership
Join the Conversation:
  • Home
  • About John
  • Blog
  • Leading and Learning Moments
  • Leader Corner
  • Resources
    • Feedback

Things to Consider When Evaluating Biden's First Year

10/18/2021

1 Comment

 
As we move from fall to winter and Biden’s approval polls slide, a little sanity and practical facts need to be inserted into the dialogue about how our President is really doing. I am amazed at Washington veterans in the press corps who just accept and report on the poll numbers without adding some context. Obviously, there are real problems for not just the President but the Democrats in Congress as the 2022 midterm election approaches. 

Now, I’m not here to argue that a 35 to 40% approval rating is no problem. What I want to do is put these numbers into some perspective, taking into account some challenges that few, if any, Presidents had to face in their first year in office.

For starters, no incoming President until Biden has had such a crazy transition from Election Day to Inauguration Day. Because then-President Trump fought the results of the election all the way to January 20th (and still considers the results false), his administration offered no help given they believed they were still in office. Not getting the traditional assistance during the transition certainly hampered the early days of the administration.

Keep in mind Biden inherited probably the worst mess of any incoming President in history. For example, the pandemic that was under Trump’s management for the first year was mishandled in so many ways. Yes, Trump pushed for warp speed action on getting vaccines, but more than off-setting this effort was his instilling in his supporters that the virus was not that big of a problem. Then after acknowledging the negative impact of the pandemic, Trump proceeded to tell his supporters that taking the vaccine was not smart. All the while, Trump was activating his army of supporters in opposition to just about everything the government was pushing to help address COVID-19 challenges. 

Here is another example. Biden inherited a civil service team that had been brutally treated. President Trump had no respect for professional public servants. At every opportunity, he placed inexperienced political hacks into positions where there had been career professionals who often had worked under several administrations. In addition, there were voluntary exits from civil servants who could not tolerate an environment so counterproductive to serving the best interests of the nation.

Also getting key positions filled that require Senate confirmation slowed things down. The Republicans in the Senate took almost every opportunity to stretch out the process for weeks and in some cases months. In the first fifteen days they had only confirmed five of Biden’s fifteen Cabinet selections. For comparison, the Senate had confirmed 90% of the Cabinet secretaries for Presidents Clinton, Bush, and Obama combined during a similar transition time frame. The bottom line is that Biden is still filling some key leadership positions including ones that Trump never saw fit to fill because he really didn’t want the government to work efficiently.

Biden has received little or no help from Republicans across the board, even on issues they really want Congress to deliver for the American people. I have no doubt that many of the Republicans who will be voting ‘no’ on all Biden’s major proposals including infrastructure will find ways to take some credit back in their states and districts even if these proposals are successfully passed by only the Democrats. As well, in time, when key projects on climate change get done and public support grows, these Republicans’ message will be that progress could not have happened without their support.

Observers of Biden’s first nine months often compare his results with that of previous administrations. The logical focus is with Lyndon B Johnson who also pushed major initiatives and with great success. Pundits often ignore the fact Johnson had strong Democratic majorities in both Houses. Biden has little or no margin for error, and the Democrats are struggling to find consensus on almost everything.

Yes, Biden has made mistakes. All Presidents do. But given the hurdles he has had to overcome, drawing conclusions this early in his term of office does not fairly represent where things really are. The keys for more success going forward are how much has been learned so far and how much getting the full team on board will make a difference.

In the end, Presidential polls are interesting and for the moment give a sense of where things appear to be, but to project conclusions for months and years down the road makes no sense. Things do change, and that includes for the better.
President Biden Speaks With Reporters
[Photo: Susan Walsh/AP]
1 Comment
Richard Claypoole
10/25/2021 02:22:58 pm

Good try Governor Carlin but papering over Biden's failures with complaints about a messy transition, slow approval of nominations, civil service incompetence -- now there's a shocker, and Republican intransigence against the largest budget expansion since WWII can't paper over Biden's disastrous Afghanistan withdrawal, his incomprehensible border policy or lack thereof, the supply chain fiasco exacerbated by his Transportation Secretary taking TWO MONTHS paternity leave, or surging inflation fueled by Biden's political decision to terminate gas pipelines which has now left him with only a supine plea to the Saudis to please increase the flow of oil. Add a stagnant economy, 10 million unfilled jobs, a divided Democratic party that makes the divisions in the Republican party caused by the Tea Partiers look like, well, a tea party, and you have a recipe for an election sunami in 2022.
Events and Republican overreach might yet save the Democrats but much more of what Biden has presented so far will make his current poll numbers look the high-water mark of his presidency and doom his party to defeat.

Reply



Leave a Reply.

    Author

    John W. Carlin​—​61st Speaker of the Kansas House, 40th Governor of Kansas, 8th Archivist of the United States, and student of leadership

    Categories

    All
    Agriculture
    Budgets And Taxation
    Capital Punishment
    China
    Civic Engagement
    Drinking Age
    Education
    Election 2016
    Election 2018
    Election 2020
    Election 2022
    Election 2024
    Environment
    Health Care
    Higher Education
    Historical Perspective
    Infrastructure
    Judicial System
    Leadership
    LGBTQ Rights
    National Archives
    Research
    Teaching

    Facebook

    John W. Carlin

    Twitter

    Tweets by @johnwcarlin

    Subscribe

    Enter your email address:

    Delivered by FeedBurner

    RSS Feed