After watching the Nevada debate and caucus results and in the context of the rules set out by the National Democratic Party, in my opinion, if the candidate field is not reduced soon, ideally before Super Tuesday, President Trump will be on his way to a second term and after four more years of continuing damage, the democracy that we have unfortunately taken for granted will be gone.
After 2016 and the long Clinton-Sanders fight up to the convention, the Democratic Party changed the rules to keep that from happening again. They thought getting over early and having a longer time for the nominee to have total focus on defeating the incumbent would increase the chances of winning in the end. With Super Tuesday looming on March 3rd, the Party hope was that for all practical purposes the Democrats would have their nominee the next day. Tragically that plan just might work, if winning in November is no longer a priority.
What they didn’t factor in their planning was the possibility that having several quality moderate candidates who split the moderate vote would be a huge advantage to the only socialist in the field whose 2016 campaign created a very hardworking Army ready to go, this time with confidence of winning the nomination. With the Democratic Party rules requiring 15% or more in each state to qualify for any delegates, as long as the current field of candidates stays in with each having some support, it will allow Senator Sanders to take all the delegates in many states with only 25 to 30% of the vote.
Well, to all of you who are saying that you understand this potential outcome but those are the rules and we should wait and see what happens, I am certain we will nominate Bernie and, I fear, lose big in November and not just the Presidency. Speaker Pelosi will lose her majority, the Senate will be much stronger Republican, and all across the land Democratic majorities in state legislatures will be lost, giving the Republicans more power on reapportionment after the 2020 census.
In Kansas, this election would be a total wipeout for many Democrats and moderate Republicans with down-ballot races especially. Why am I so confident of these projections? Not complicated. Studies show that we Americans have made huge progress in accepting candidates of color or who are gay, with only 10 to 15% reluctant to support such candidates. When the question is asked, “could you support an acknowledged Socialist?” the number goes to almost 50% who would not support such a candidate.
Reasonable people can argue over the meaning of the Socialist label and what it means in context of Bernie's vision for the country, but for most folks who haven't given it much thought, the term alone will be used to stoke fear and resentment towards anyone who seems to be aligned. This would put Democrats on the defensive against every historical reference to socialism in the book. And, after months of TV ads and rallies chipping away at that 50%, it could almost automatically give President Trump a second term, and he will bring to an end the democracy we've grown up with and assumed would last.
So what is needed to keep this from happening? Aside from a miracle or intervention from God, I can think of only one possible solution. We need some of the Democratic candidates with very limited possibilities of winning to drop out and very soon. Given what we know from the polls, nominating Klobuchar or Steyer, is not going to happen. They could, however, by exiting the race give a much better chance to Biden. And, in my opinion, Warren and Buttigieg are teetering right on the edge of this, with each needing stellar Super Tuesday performances to really make their case for staying in. Biden looked much better in the Nevada Primary debate and, despite a less than sterling performance, I want another look at Bloomberg. Then, after Super Tuesday, some movement will be needed in order to get to a one-on-one race.
Bottom line: There is too much at stake to not one way or another nominate someone who can win!
After 2016 and the long Clinton-Sanders fight up to the convention, the Democratic Party changed the rules to keep that from happening again. They thought getting over early and having a longer time for the nominee to have total focus on defeating the incumbent would increase the chances of winning in the end. With Super Tuesday looming on March 3rd, the Party hope was that for all practical purposes the Democrats would have their nominee the next day. Tragically that plan just might work, if winning in November is no longer a priority.
What they didn’t factor in their planning was the possibility that having several quality moderate candidates who split the moderate vote would be a huge advantage to the only socialist in the field whose 2016 campaign created a very hardworking Army ready to go, this time with confidence of winning the nomination. With the Democratic Party rules requiring 15% or more in each state to qualify for any delegates, as long as the current field of candidates stays in with each having some support, it will allow Senator Sanders to take all the delegates in many states with only 25 to 30% of the vote.
Well, to all of you who are saying that you understand this potential outcome but those are the rules and we should wait and see what happens, I am certain we will nominate Bernie and, I fear, lose big in November and not just the Presidency. Speaker Pelosi will lose her majority, the Senate will be much stronger Republican, and all across the land Democratic majorities in state legislatures will be lost, giving the Republicans more power on reapportionment after the 2020 census.
In Kansas, this election would be a total wipeout for many Democrats and moderate Republicans with down-ballot races especially. Why am I so confident of these projections? Not complicated. Studies show that we Americans have made huge progress in accepting candidates of color or who are gay, with only 10 to 15% reluctant to support such candidates. When the question is asked, “could you support an acknowledged Socialist?” the number goes to almost 50% who would not support such a candidate.
Reasonable people can argue over the meaning of the Socialist label and what it means in context of Bernie's vision for the country, but for most folks who haven't given it much thought, the term alone will be used to stoke fear and resentment towards anyone who seems to be aligned. This would put Democrats on the defensive against every historical reference to socialism in the book. And, after months of TV ads and rallies chipping away at that 50%, it could almost automatically give President Trump a second term, and he will bring to an end the democracy we've grown up with and assumed would last.
So what is needed to keep this from happening? Aside from a miracle or intervention from God, I can think of only one possible solution. We need some of the Democratic candidates with very limited possibilities of winning to drop out and very soon. Given what we know from the polls, nominating Klobuchar or Steyer, is not going to happen. They could, however, by exiting the race give a much better chance to Biden. And, in my opinion, Warren and Buttigieg are teetering right on the edge of this, with each needing stellar Super Tuesday performances to really make their case for staying in. Biden looked much better in the Nevada Primary debate and, despite a less than sterling performance, I want another look at Bloomberg. Then, after Super Tuesday, some movement will be needed in order to get to a one-on-one race.
Bottom line: There is too much at stake to not one way or another nominate someone who can win!
RSS Feed