For the Republicans, the Trump freight train has at least been slowed. But the anti-establishment wing of Cruz, Trump, and Carson, together, still dominate. Huckabee is out and I assume Santorum will follow. New Hampshire, historically, has been hard to predict. We'll see how the polls shift after last night. As a side note of probably little value, I would rank the speeches of the top three candidates in reverse order of the caucus results. Rubio was smart to go on early, catching the largest national audience and with a speech that was well-prepared and very well delivered. Trump had the challenge of speaking having lost when all the polls had him winning, but he wisely came on quickly, was for him short, calm, polite, and didn’t hurt himself anymore. Then the weakest, for me, was the winner Cruz, who spoke slowly, without passion, and with little crowd excitement, especially given that he won. I don’t know if that means anything, but just keep that in mind as we go forward.
For the Democrats, it is certainly accurate to say it was close and not surprising that both Clinton and Sanders were claiming victory. Bernie turned out a lot of new young voters, which may be valuable for the Democratic Party in general going forward this year and beyond, regardless how this race finishes. For Clinton, she did much better than eight years ago (which bodes well for her, especially given the high turnout at the caucus), and she was tested and seriously challenged, which certainly won’t hurt her going forward. Having eked out a victory, she avoids the historical fact that losing both Iowa and New Hampshire has usually been difficult to overcome.
So where are we? For the Republicans, it comes down to which lane, the anti or the remaining establishment, can sort more quickly to having just one candidate in the race. Either side continuing to split amongst as many as three candidates, when the other consolidates around one, will probably determine the outcome. For the Democrats, with O’Malley out, it is now one-on-one and a choice between the very well-known, experienced, battle scarred Hillary and the acknowledged socialist Bernie, who has never been a Democrat but who has certainly built a following that will be valuable for the Democratic nominee winning in November. The Democratic base in the first two states are liberal and white. Going south and west will bring a much more diverse electorate and likely different results.
For the Democrats, it is certainly accurate to say it was close and not surprising that both Clinton and Sanders were claiming victory. Bernie turned out a lot of new young voters, which may be valuable for the Democratic Party in general going forward this year and beyond, regardless how this race finishes. For Clinton, she did much better than eight years ago (which bodes well for her, especially given the high turnout at the caucus), and she was tested and seriously challenged, which certainly won’t hurt her going forward. Having eked out a victory, she avoids the historical fact that losing both Iowa and New Hampshire has usually been difficult to overcome.
So where are we? For the Republicans, it comes down to which lane, the anti or the remaining establishment, can sort more quickly to having just one candidate in the race. Either side continuing to split amongst as many as three candidates, when the other consolidates around one, will probably determine the outcome. For the Democrats, with O’Malley out, it is now one-on-one and a choice between the very well-known, experienced, battle scarred Hillary and the acknowledged socialist Bernie, who has never been a Democrat but who has certainly built a following that will be valuable for the Democratic nominee winning in November. The Democratic base in the first two states are liberal and white. Going south and west will bring a much more diverse electorate and likely different results.
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